More than 50 Biradiri Members gathered at the IIC Conference Room on Saturday 25.04.26 to listen our Chief Guest, Mr. Arun Kumar Singh IFS Retd. (Former Ambassador to USA, Israel and France) and our Biradiri Discussant Mr. Vivek Katju (Former Secretary West and Ambassador to Myanmar, Afghanistan and Thailand).

The panel was coordinated by Mr. Ratan Watal IAS Retd, Former Finance Secretary and former PS to the PM.

After a brief introduction of KPA by Mr. Vinayak Kaul, Mr. Ratan Watal introduced the speakers and touched on the context and invited Mr. Arun to speak on the subject first.

Mr. Arun Singh spoke about the place of USA and its external relations in the Middle East in a historical perspective He presented an overview giving three major transitions, which defined US regional and global relationships. Starting from the Iran Revolution (anti-West) of 1979 coupled with the Mecca incident, dissolution of Soviet Union in 1991 and the current 3rd transition where numerous factors (conflicts, resetting of post World War 11 relationships dictated by blocks and promotion then disintegration of rules based institutions like GATT and WTO. Nuclear proliferation, allowing the rise of China, then weaponisation of trade through tariffs. Then imposition of sanctions, technology embargos, playing with commodities like oil and rare minerals only to create uncertainty and volatility. These are underlying shifts in US Policy that have begun to appear almost like neo colonialism in the present times.

US introduced a rules based international order but is now actively subverting it reverting to the old Monroe type Doctrine. This has created a dark phase where we don’t see light at the end of the tunnel.

In all of this, especially Europe and the Middle East players are left groping for a stable defense security, trading and energy security framework. The rise of a new world power namely China has only added to the uncertainties that most countries now face.

This cannot be blamed on the current US administration only. Much of this was in the making during previous regimes of Presidents Bush, Obama and Biden.

He then highlighted how well the Indian Foreign office is reading the gravity of this unprecedented situation by quoting various statements of various world leaders including the Indian Foreign Minister.

US is India’s most dominant trade partner with Indian investment in the US in almost 50 States. With over 5 million Indian Origin residents and a 25 Billion dollars plus defense trade that is growing, he said we must deal with the situation with dexterity, mature engagement and a policy of hedging risks despite US positions becoming unilateral or quixotic now and then. Relevant to our dealing with US he said:

Mr. Vivek Katju then provided additional inputs. His foremost point was on technology as the most effective hedging tool available. He said ‘technology is real power’. This has repeatedly been proven in all the wars and disruptions. He said India must have robust R&D policy in key sectors. He also questioned whether our West Asia Strategy is appropriate? Now the challenge is also how to relate with China, which is not like old USSR. We cannot delink with one and align with the other prudence will require engagements with both. This of course is a major diplomatic challenge.

Other distinguished Guests who were present engaged with the speakers and enriched the discussion.

The Talk ended with a Vote of thanks to the Speakers by Secretary KPA Mr Sanajay Kaul.